Short essays by Douglas Winslow Cooper, Ph.D., the author of TING AND I: A Memoir of Love, Courage and Devotion, published in September 2011 by Outskirts Press (Parker, CO, USA), available from outskirtspress.com/tingandi, Barnes and Noble [bn.com], and Amazon [amazon.com], in paperback or ebook formats. Please visit us at tingandi.com for more information.
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Covid-19 Coronavirus Fate: Muller's Ratchet
Such viruses tend to accumulate mutations over time that make them less virulent.
Mutations tend to be dysfunctional rather than beneficial.
So, slowing down the transmission should weaken the virus strain.
https://www.orthospinenews.com/2020/05/06/doctors-react-to-study-revealing-covid-19-mutations-may-be-weakening-this-is-virology-101/
See also Farr's Law, which also includes a decreasing infectivity over time, beyond the reduction of susceptibles in the population at risk:
A century ago John Brownlee showed that Farr's law gives an exponential function:
I(t) = exp[-At^2 + Bt + C] = exp(C) exp[-At^2 + Bt]
this is a constant term times an exponential term of growth (Bt) and one of decrease (-At^2).
From the beginning, t near zero, to the end, t >> 1 or -At^2+Bt << -1, I(t) looks somewhat like the bell-shaped curve of the Normal, Gaussian, statistical distribution, exp(-a(t-b)^2).
Setting -At^2+Bt << -1 lets one predict the effective end of the epidemic, given A and B from fitting the curve function to the data.
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