Plausibly, the key metric is reduction in hospitalizations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/04/covid-vaccine-trial-results-hospitalization/
More likely, deaths will trump, partly because they are so final, partly because hospitalizations are still somewhat qualitative, but deaths are less ambiguous.
More complex measures, such as "quality-adjusted life-years of life expectancy" might make more sense but are less likely to get public acceptance.
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